Daily Double Optimizer

Did they bet the right amount? For every Daily Double we compute the wager the model recommends, given the player's lead, the clues remaining, and how often they're getting the questions right. It's a 4th-down decision model, but for Jeopardy.

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About Daily Double Wagering

Every Jeopardy game has three Daily Doubles, and the contestant who finds one can wager any amount up to their score (or the round's maximum value). It's the single most consequential decision in the game — a well-timed all-in can flip a runaway, a panicked underbet can blow a lead. The Daily Double Optimizer scores every wager in Jeopardy history against what the model says they should have bet.

The recommendation comes from the same engine that powers the BRING IT Forecaster: at every clue, we estimate each contestant's probability of winning the game given the score, the clues remaining, and the strength of the field. The "right" wager is the one that maximizes win probability given the player's typical get rate on questions of that difficulty. Sometimes that's a true Daily Double for the win. Sometimes it's a small, defensive bet. Sometimes the contestant nailed it, and sometimes they didn't.

Browse by date, season, or player. Every game gets a clue-by-clue breakdown, with the recommended wager and the actual wager side by side. The analysis updates nightly using win-probability models built by a former Jeopardy champion.